Fact-Based Decision Making: The Key to Making Progress as a Creator

Why do we Rely on Gut Feelings to Make Decisions?

We rely on gut feelings to make decisions because of our genetics.

Over hundreds of years, we've learnt that intuitive decision making can be life-saving. Daniel Kahneman’s behavioural insights calls it System one thinking. We often decide subconsciously, making choices from a position of past experiences that may or may not be relevant.

The other issue forcing us to act on gut feelings are cognitive biases. In particular, confirmation bias lets us accept the first confirming evidence as sufficient for us to act.

For creators, gut feelings will often guide them to develop ideas they prefer over seeking evidence from their audience. Evidence-based decision-making creates positions of strength that rarely fail.

Fact-based decision-making is a form of System Two thinking.

It pushes you to decide when you have objective information. With facts, and time to think, you can reduce cognitive bias in business decisions. This is why we have to fight the instinct to 'trust our guts' and follow the evidence.

Why is Fact-Based Decision Making Important for Creators?

As a creator, using evidence instead of hunches can transform your career. Here's why fact-based decision-making matters:

1. It Leads to Better Content and Results

When you base decisions on data rather than guesswork, you create content that resonates. Imagine researching which topics your audience actually wants instead of assuming what they might like. This approach creates a return on investment (ROI) and helps you:

• Avoid costly mistakes
• Create content with higher engagement
• Stay ahead of industry and algorithm trends

2. It Removes Harmful Bias

We all have blind spots. Fact-based decisions help you overcome:

• Personal preferences that might not match your audience
• Emotional attachments to ideas that data shows aren't working
• Assumptions about what your audience wants

3. It Improves Team Alignment

When everyone sees the same data, collaboration becomes easier:

• Team members support decisions even when they initially disagree
• Discussions focus on evidence rather than opinions
• Audience feedback becomes central to your process

Justin Welsh's Story: Fact-Based Decision Making in Action

Justin Welsh has built a $9.3 million business selling courses to creators. But in 2022, despite growing his audience on LinkedIn and Twitter, his sales weren't following suit.

His Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) showed a clear problem: his audience wasn't moving from social platforms to his website where they could purchase his products.

Justin couldn't off-board them to his website.

It was even more important as Justin had commenced a new newsletter, The Saturday Solopreneur at the beginning of 2022. People were subscribing, but not at the level Justin wanted.

There were other challenges too.

The volume of content needed to keep growing the audience on Twitter and LinkedIn, and write a weekly newsletter was huge.

What evolved was a process Justin calls the hub and spoke system.

It's a simple system which takes a critical piece of content and expands from it, creating many pieces of content—all related to the hub.

Critically, Justin ensured most of the 'spokes' linked back to the 'hub' article on his website.

In summary, it:

• Increased efficiency—reducing the need for new ideas to drive new individual posts.
• Increased organization—making it easier for Justin to stay on theme.
• Increased results—more traffic back to the website leading to more sales.

July—the first month of the new hub & spoke structure—generated a 50% increase over the previous month.

Of course, the results attract the headlines.

But, what is equally as important is how Justin used fact-based decision-making to guide his plan to experiment with a new approach. Without it, Justin wouldn't have been able to see the evidence to make the change.

How Business Leaders Can Leverage Fact-Based Decision Making

As Justin's story illustrates, using facts over hunches can transform your decision-making process and drive significant results. While creators benefit from this approach, it's equally powerful for business leaders across industries. Here's a step-by-step guide to evidence-based decision-making you can apply in your leadership role:

1. Conduct Thorough Market Research

Understand your target market, competitors, and industry trends through rigorous data analysis. This might involve:

• Analysing customer demographics and behaviour patterns
• Studying market reports and industry publications
• Conducting surveys or focus groups

2. Implement Data-Driven Strategic Planning

Base your strategic decisions on concrete data rather than assumptions:

• Use financial metrics and KPIs to guide resource allocation
• Analyse historical performance data to inform future projections
• Utilize predictive analytics to anticipate market shifts

3. Foster a Culture of Experimentation

Encourage your team to test ideas systematically:

• Implement A/B testing for product features or marketing campaigns
• Run pilot programs before full-scale implementation
• Use agile methodologies to iterate quickly based on real-time data

4. Enhance Cross-Functional Collaboration

Improve decision-making across your organization by:

• Sharing relevant data across departments
• Implementing collaborative tools for data visualization and analysis
• Encouraging cross-functional teams to tackle complex problems

5. Establish Robust Performance Measurement Systems

Track the impact of your decisions with:

• Clear, measurable objectives for all major initiatives
• Regular performance reviews based on predetermined metrics
• Dashboards that provide real-time insights into key business areas

By applying these principles, you can make more informed decisions, reduce costly mistakes, and position your organization for sustainable growth. Remember, as Peter Drucker said, "The best decisions are made on the basis of facts, not hunches."

From Data to Decisions: Your Path Forward

Justin Welsh's story isn't just fascinating—it's a blueprint for success in today's data-driven business landscape. His systematic approach of measuring the impact of fact-based decisions transformed not only his content strategy, but his entire business model.

The 50% growth he generated catches everyone's attention.

But the real power of fact-based decision-making extends beyond metrics. It provides business leaders and creators alike with something far more valuable: confidence in your direction and clarity in your strategy.

To implement this approach in your own work:

1. Build your data foundation - Collect meaningful information from diverse sources (e.g., Google Analytics) that directly relates to your specific goals and challenges.
2. Create feedback loops - Establish systems that regularly bring in fresh insights from your audience, team members, and industry trends.
3. Test methodically - Don't just experiment randomly; create structured tests with clear hypotheses, like Justin did with his hub and spoke system.
4. Measure what matters - Focus on metrics that directly connect to your business objectives rather than vanity metrics that look impressive but drive no real value.

The distinction between those who succeed and those who struggle often comes down to this fundamental approach. Fact-based decision-making isn't just a technique—it's the foundation upon which sustainable success is built.

So ask yourself: Are you making decisions based on facts or feelings? Your answer will determine whether you remain simply a participant in your field or emerge as a leader who drives real progress.

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