We make fast decisions or slow decisions.
It appears there is no in-between.
Our future contains few absolutes.
But we make our decisions based on absolutes. We see our decisions as either fast ones or slow ones. We see the odds as a yes or a no.
Probabilistic thinking pushes us to see the likelihood of an outcome. But even when we see fractions or percentage odds, we don’t get them. Nate Silver famously predicted that Hilary Clinton had 66.9% chance of winning the 2016 presidential election.
When Trump won, Nate was ironically criticised for his failure to predict the outcome.
But he never said Trump couldn’t win.
All he said was that Trump’s odds (1 in 3) were lower than Hillary’s.
Our decision-making comes with the same hubris.
Fast is fast. Slow is slow.
There is no middle ground.
Just like the problem with probability, we overlook the context of the decision.
Who said a fast decision has to be spontaneous?
A decision that offers a chance to achieve a sales target for the next financial year, but is made in a meeting that lasts less than an hour, appears to be a fast decision. Likewise, taking twenty minutes to choose a snack from the vending machine that you’ll eat in twenty seconds is a slow decision.
Both decisions fail to consider their outcomes in context.
That’s the important thing about decision-making that most of us ignore.
We crave absolutes. It’s why some decisions are made to prove a point, not to create an outcome.
But Why?
The conviction of chasing truth might position you as right, but it rarely creates progress. It’s like putting a stake in the ground without linking it to another. All you have is the post in the ground.
Optimising for outcomes, no matter how uncertain, gives you influence over the future. It removes the absolutes that our biases so love to grasp onto.
Let’s take the science of setting a sales goal.
In the past, this was probably an arbitrary number set from above; all you had to do was prove it true or false. But now you have to decide. Rather than pick a number you think the board will like, you optimise for achieving it.
Now, your attention turns to product availability, customer depth, and competitor analysis, along with the actions you take to enhance these.
Now your sales goal is built with the outcome in mind.
When it comes to presenting the sales goal to your team and other stakeholders, you can share how you built the goal. This level of clarity gives everyone confidence and motivation.
You’ll notice it doesn’t deny uncertainty but gives you facts to build on. From here, new information appears, which allows you to iterate on your approach. This aligns with the feedback loop approach used by successful decision-makers like Elon Musk.
It is how you create a culture of achievement.
You can see how this approach brings you a valuable frame of reference.
You ignore the speed of the decision. Instead, you begin questioning the outcome. The likelihood of it given the information you have and the actions you can take.
This is the core of a decision.
Current Information + Potential Action = Desired Outcome
It is also the biggest shift you can make as a decision-maker.
Too much time is wasted on trying to prove a truth.
Be outcome-led.
Ask yourself: What outcome am I trying to achieve here?
Putting this question top of mind before making any decision gives you a grounding in reality.
It challenges you to consider what you know before you act. And ask it enough, and soon some of the behaviours you adopt daily—like using social media—will change.
That’s my challenge to you.
Make decisions based on the outcome.
Here’s some more informed reading to help you achieve this:
Which of your regular decisions do you think would benefit most from asking "What outcome am I trying to achieve here?"
Let me know.
Thanks for reading,
Darren
