The most expensive mistakes in business aren’t made from a lack of data.
They’re made by ignoring probability.
I’ve been there.
Throughout my career, critical decisions cost the companies I worked in thousands—not because we lacked information, but because we never assessed likelihood.
The problem?
We never asked one simple question: “How likely is this?”
When I finally started asking this question, everything changed.
I began evaluating:
Is this market research reliable? Will this competitive advantage last? Does this align with our strategic goals?
This brought alternative scenarios to mind.
Some were more probable than others.
I started making decisions based on probability, not just preference.
The results were immediate.
Business plans create forecasts of growth, often without realism.
Working with a client on a future plan, I asked:
“How likely is this growth?”
They identified market risks they’d overlooked.
They restructured the forecast, setting more realistic objectives.
Now, before every strategic decision, I ask: “How likely is this?”
My decisions thank me. Yours will too.
Find out why we have a problem with probability. Read the article below.
Thanks for reading,
Darren
