Mental Models
for Decision Making

Why your thinking feels sound in the moment and wrong in hindsight.
Your judgment isn't faulty. The model you use to read a situation is where the gap lives.

You carry assumptions into every decision. Your experiences shape how people behave, how systems respond, and where risk sits. These are your unnamed mental models, and they influence every decision you make.

Most of your models are never questioned. You assume that what worked in the past will work in the future.

But that's not the case.

Mental models help surface those assumptions. They take others' experience and give you a more accurate model. It's how you stop doubting yourself in hindsight.

P.S. If you're not sure where to begin, I'd suggest reasoning from first principles.

Systems thinking for leaders

I've never been a 'move fast and break things' leader. And it cost me.

As a young, naive manager, I laboured over decisions that carried no real cost. A price change could have been live overnight. One day of data would have told us everything the debate never could.

We chose argument over evidence for weeks and it cost us £10,000 in lost revenue. The feedback loop was running the whole time.

Feedback loops, entropy, unintended consequences. They're the reason your last three decisions produced outcomes you didn't anticipate. The models below don't change how you decide. They change what you see before you do.
Entropy
Black swans
Laws of physics
Feedback loops

Clear thinking for leaders

"This analysis is the best thing I've read this year."

It was high praise from my managing director. I'd reviewed a repair service, found several problems, and rather than declare each one, questioned every issue until I found the root cause. The service became viable.

Most leaders identify what's wrong. Fewer identify why. First principles, inversion, base rates, probability — the models that get you to the root before you reach the conclusion.
First principles
Inversion
Base rates
Probability

Every leader has a decision they're not quite ready to make

The guide gives you the thinking. This makes it real. Pick a decision and work through it — one question at a time.

Work through your decision
One Good Decision — work through the call you've been avoiding

Decision making frameworks for leaders

I'll never know how many times a checklist has saved me.

All I remember is the unauthorised credit I signed off. The one where I didn't use the credit approval checklist. It was an oversight and it cost me a reprimand.

The checklist didn't make pilots less skilled. As Charlie Munger observed, it made their skill reliable under pressure. Airline travel became one of the safest ways to travel because human error was designed out of the process.Structure for the moment instinct isn't enough. Problem solving, checklists, frameworks — they all exist for that moment.
Problem solving and decision making
Checklists
Problem solving tools

FAQs

Do mental models actually improve decision making?

Most leaders treat mental models as frameworks to apply under pressure. They're descriptions of how situations actually behave — entropy, inversion, feedback loops — operating on every decision whether you use them consciously or not. The improvement comes from seeing them clearly. Start with the systems thinking group and work from there.

Why do I keep making the same decision mistakes?

Because the assumption behind the mistake was never examined. Most recurring decision errors don't come from bad judgment — they come from a mental model that was accurate once and never got updated. The first principles question isn't "what should I do?" It's "what am I taking for granted that keeps producing this result?"

What is the difference between a mental model and a decision-making framework?

A framework tells you what steps to follow. A mental model tells you what's actually happening in the situation those steps are applied to. Without an accurate model of the situation, the framework produces a precise answer to the wrong question. The decision-making process depends on both — but the model comes first.

Which mental model should a leader learn first?

First principles. It addresses the failure mode most leaders hit most often — solving a problem that isn't the real problem. Strip a situation back to what you actually know to be true and every other model on this page becomes easier to apply correctly. The systems thinking group is where most leaders find the biggest gap.